Details of the Trump Administration’s recent deals with China have yet to be released, but a few key goals have been announced by the White House.
✔ China will meet its 2025 pledge to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in 2026, 2027, and 2028. This should be an easy goal to reach. With the exception of the trade war years of 2018–2019 and 2025, soybean exports to China topped that amount for every year since 2014.
✔ China will buy at least $17 billion per year of U.S. agricultural products in 2026 (prorated), 2027, and 2028, over and above its soybean purchases. If met, this will be a significant export increase above the 2022 peak of $14 billion for agriculture, fishing, hunting, and forestry exports to China other than soybeans. It would be an even bigger increase from last year’s non-soybean agricultural exports to China of just $2.5 billion.
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