Some of the most dramatic Senate wins this year occurred in the states hurt most by executive tariffs. Nine of the ten states with the highest tariff cost-per-household held Senate elections, and seven of those states (Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Texas) elected Democrats. This is all according to freshly updated data from NTU’s Tariffs.org website.
While economists agree that tariffs are economically harmful and on-again-off-again executive tariffs especially so, midterm election results provide evidence that they are also politically costly. Candidates who ignored this reality and defended tariffs faced uphill battles against those who opposed them. Exit polls found that 66% of voters believed tariffs have hurt the national economy.
Our Tariffs.org website, updated recently with new federal data released November 4, provides evidence about the role tariffs played in the recent elections. For example, Democrats Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Jon Ossoff in Georgia both hammered Trump’s tariffs, eventually defeating Republican candidates who defended them. Citing previous data from NTU Foundation, El-Sayed posted on X: “Trump’s tariffs have cost Michigan $5,619 per household—higher than every other state.” Ossoff said tariffs “are crushing Georgia’s small businesses and Georgia farms.”
Michigan is the state most harmed by tariffs imposed by the executive branch. Executive tariffs imposed on imports to Michigan through September total $27 billion, the equivalent of $6,485 per household. The second-most affected state, Georgia, had a gross tariff cost equal to $5,525 per household.
Tariffs also influenced the outcome of tossup elections. Anti-tariff Democrat Adam Hamilton won in Kansas, and anti-tariff Democrat Scott Colom is currently leading in Mississippi. The last time Kansas sent a Democrat to the Senate was 1932—coincidentally, perhaps, on the heels of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Mississippi hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1982.
Hamilton’s campaign website shares his position that “We should immediately get rid of tariffs,” and on the campaign trail Hamilton endorsed restoring the constitutional authority of Congress to vote on tariffs. Colom pointed out, “The tariffs have been terrible for farmers. The tariffs have been terrible for small businesses. They've been terrible for consumers. They’re a tax.”
An opportunity for bipartisanship
Likely next House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries has promised legislation to reassert congressional authority over tariffs. Incoming Ways and Means Chair Richard Neal (D-MA) has said tariffs should be subject to congressional approval. Legislation to subject tariffs to a vote of Congress was cosponsored by current House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) in 2019 and endorsed by the House Republican Study Committee at the time.
Several trade authority bills have been introduced in the Senate, including the No Taxation Without Representation Act from Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), the Trade Review Act from Sens. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA), and, significantly, the Congressional Trade Powers Reform Act from future Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR).
Across the country, Democratic candidates won by putting Republicans on the defensive and forcing them to defend unpopular tariffs. Just before the election, a Morning Consult poll found 59% of Democratic voters want congressional approval of tariffs to be a top priority for Congress, higher than any other issue surveyed.
As reported on Tariffs.org, executive tariffs have cost over $400 billion, an amount that increases every day. The time has come for Congress to reassert its Article I, Section 8 constitutional authority. No more tariffs without a vote of Congress.