The reality television show “Living with Ed” documents actor and environmentalist Ed Begley Jr.’s adventures and challenges in living a low-carbon emission, or so-called “green” lifestyle outside of Los Angeles. In each episode, we watch as Ed tries to grow his own drought-resistant crops or get good mileage out of his electric car. Though we may chuckle as Ed endeavors to practice what he preaches, his reality could become the reality for all of California unless Proposition 23 passes.
Proposition 23 on the statewide ballot would suspend AB 32, a 2006 law that requires a 30% reduction in carbon emissions by 2020, until unemployment falls to 5.5 percent for four consecutive quarters. AB 32 achieves the emissions reductions through new taxes and regulations on cars, trucks, appliances, and farming. Additionally, AB 32 mandates electricity from renewable sources like wind and solar power.
The bill’s supporters said it would create jobs, so-called “green jobs,” in California, but a study a the Pacific Research Institute, a San Francisco-based think tank, predicts 150,000 lost jobs by 2012 and another 1.3 million by 2020. Additionally, a Sacramento State University study shows that AB 32 will actually increase a family’s cost of living nearly $4,000, boost the regulatory burden on an average small business by nearly $50,000. All of this to create a “green” lifestyle for all of California.
These figures are not idle speculation. European countries that have tried programs like AB 32 have actually experienced job losses. Gabriel Calzada, a Spanish economist and lead author of a study detailing the economic costs of Spain’s green experiment, found that the Spanish economy lost a net 2.2 jobs for every “green job” the mandates created. And most of the green jobs (9 out of 10) created from renewable energy mandates were temporary because they were installation jobs. As a result of the mandates, Spanish companies like Acerinox, a steel maker, exported manufacturing jobs to South Africa and Kentucky. California companies will likely do the same.
California simply cannot afford this. The American Legislative Exchange Council already ranks California 46th out of 50 on its Economic Outlook Rank. The state ranks so poorly due to its high state and local tax burden, its income tax progressivity, size of its public workforce, and public employee compensation. For example, the state boasts one of the highest marginal income tax rates on high-income earners, currently at 10.55 percent, and the highest marginal corporate income tax rate in the West, at 8.84 percent. However, all of this translates into a weaker economic output. Adding to the tax burden by allowing AB 32 to take effect would only exacerbate the state’s bad economic problems.
No other state has tried to follow California’ lead in creating it’s own cap and trade program, and for good reason. Even under the best economic conditions, the impacts of AB 32 on the state would be terribly harmful. But at a time when the state’s unemployment rate is in excess of 12 percent and the state is broke by $20 billion, allowing AB 32 to take affect would be downright devastating to Californians. Though we may laugh and envy some aspects of Ed Bagley’s lifestyle, California simply cannot afford it.