It is true that fewer American teens smoke cigarettes today than 20 years ago and taxes on tobacco products have increased, but a new study finds that these trends lack correlation. A recent working paper by Benjamin Hansen, Joseph Sabia and Daniel Rees, “Cigarette Taxes and Youth Smoking: Updated Estimates Using YRBS Data” found that a $1 increase in cigarette taxes from 2007-2013 was linked to a small increase in teen smoking. This counter-intuitive relationship could be attributed to many different factors, including the belief that most casual or social teen smokers have already quit and those remaining are frequent smokers who are not responsive to price increases. In addition, tech-savvy teens are more inclined to use the Internet for cigarette purchases in order to avoid taxes.
In 2008, Christopher Carpenter and Philip Cook performed a similar study using data from the state and national Youth Risk Behavior Surveys (YRBS) for the period 1991-2005. They found a strong negative correlation between cigarette taxes and youth smoking; however, the most recent study shows something quite different. The 2007-2013 period is intriguing, due to the sharp increase in tobacco taxes in many states during the recession. For example, Massachusetts increased its cigarette tax by $1 per pack in 2008, and Minnesota’s tax jumped $1.60 in 2013.
The YRBS surveyed more than 150,000 high school students in 48 states from 1991 to 2013, asking about various behaviors including smoking. The data pulled from this study is not without flaws; high school students may be less inclined to answer honestly since the survey is school-administered, and it is also impossible to reach youths who are not in school. Nevertheless, the new study strongly suggests that cigarette taxes are not an effective mechanism to decrease teen smoking. Furthermore, these regressive taxes can cause particular harm to low-income Americans, as shown by a 2007 study by the Heritage Foundation, which found that more than one-fourth of people who smoke live below the federal poverty line and another quarter of all smokers live within 100-200 percent of the poverty line. As they pursue the meritorious goal of reducing teen smoking, National Taxpayers Union encourages lawmakers to employ options that produce effective results without disproportionately encumbering the poor.