Unless Congress acts before January 1, 2026, the expiration of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will trigger widespread tax increases for 80% of Americans, significantly impact state economies, and disrupt state tax structures.
For federal taxes, the expiration of the 2017 TCJA would:
- Halve the federal standard deduction
- Reduce the federal child tax credit
- Reintroduce higher federal tax brackets
- Lower the federal estate tax threshold
- Eliminate key business tax benefits like federal Section 199A and full expensing
Altogether, individual and business taxes would rise by $500 billion annually, reducing U.S. GDP by 1.1% and wages by 0.5%.
TCJA Expiration Consequences for Missouri Taxpayers, Businesses, and State Government
- Average Tax Increase: If TCJA expires, Missouri taxpayers will face an average tax increase of $2,209 per filer.
- Rolling Conformity: Missouri automatically follows the federal tax code, so any federal action (or lack of action) will automatically apply to the state tax code. Policymakers should consider preserving elements of the current tax code in case TCJA expires.
- Generous Standard Deduction: An expiration of the expanded federal standard deduction would automatically sharply reduce the state standard deduction, which would mean a tax increase for most taxpayers. To avoid this tax increase if Congress does not act, policymakers in Missouri could consider establishing that the standard deduction in their state is the larger of federal law or the inflation-adjusted amount from this year.
- Business Expensing: Missouri does not adopt full expensing business investments. State policymakers could adopt 100% full expensing regardless of whether federal full expensing is renewed.
- Monitor Proposals on Tips, Overtime, Social Security, and Auto Loans: Depending on how these proposals are structured in any federal enactment, they could automatically flow through to the state tax system.
- SALT Cap Easing Would Be Inequitable: Most of the tax cut benefit from easing the SALT cap would accrue to California (34%) and New York (17%), not Missouri (0.6%). State policymakers should communicate to federal counterparts that easing the SALT cap would only benefit other, higher-tax states, and is not a priority.