Unless Congress acts before January 1, 2026, the expiration of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will trigger widespread tax increases for 80% of Americans, significantly impact state economies, and disrupt state tax structures.
For federal taxes, the expiration of the 2017 TCJA would:
- Halve the federal standard deduction
- Reduce the federal child tax credit
- Reintroduce higher federal tax brackets
- Lower the federal estate tax threshold
- Eliminate key business tax benefits like federal Section 199A and full expensing
Altogether, individual and business taxes would rise by $500 billion annually, reducing U.S. GDP by 1.1% and wages by 0.5%.
TCJA Expiration Consequences for Kentucky Taxpayers, Businesses, and State Government
Average Tax Increase: If TCJA expires, Kentucky taxpayers will face an average tax increase of $1,715 per filer.
Fixed Conformity: States that must affirmatively conform with the federal tax code as of a certain date could specify that their law incorporates any retroactive federal provisions enacted after the date of fixed conformity. Policymakers should at least be conscious of any retroactive provisions when selecting their date of fixed conformity.
Business Expensing: The state does not adopt full expensing for business investments. State policymakers could adopt 100% full expensing regardless of whether federal full expensing is renewed.
SALT Cap Easing Would Be Inequitable: Most of the tax cut benefit from easing the SALT cap would accrue to California (34%) and New York (17%), not Kentucky (0.4%). State policymakers should communicate to federal counterparts that easing the SALT cap would only benefit other, higher-tax states, and is not a priority.