According to the National Retail Federation, 55% of Americans are expected to celebrate Valentine’s Day this year. Total spending is expected to reach new heights of around $29.1 billion or $199.78 per spender. Some of the most popular categories of goods are expected to be candy, flowers, and eating out, many of which have become more expensive due to President Trump’s imposed tariffs. The grassroots coalition group We Pay the Tariffs estimates that Valentine’s Day’s most popular gifts cost more because of over $3 billion in tariff payments last year. These tariffs continue to drive up costs for Americans. A growing number of studies, including those from the Congressional Budget Office and Goldman Sachs, conclude that the American consumer will bear the majority of tariff costs. So what are these higher costs looking like for the average taxpayer on Valentine’s Day?
The Century Foundation estimates that the cost of rose bouquets has increased by 16.6% on average this year. Most roses in the U.S. come from Colombia and Ecuador, making up over 80% of U.S. flower imports, and both countries are expecting higher prices and fewer sales after the U.S. violated free trade agreements with recently imposed tariffs. Colombian rose farmers are grappling with a newly added 10% tariff on exports to the United States, and Ecuadorian roses are experiencing an added 15% tariff. There is no sanctuary in European flowers either; Trump imposed double-digit tariffs on those as well.
If a night eating out was the plan, that would also cost more. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that full-service restaurant costs have risen by 4.9%. When surveyed by Newsweek, 47% of restaurants reported tariffs had resulted in higher menu prices. If restaurants aren’t raising prices, it’s often because they are reducing food quality to absorb higher food costs. Popular dining items such as beef and wine have significantly risen in price due to tariffs.
If consumers were hoping to sweeten the holiday with affordable candy, they may not be in luck.
Lending Tree found that the cost of the 39 most popular Valentine’s Day chocolates has increased by an average of 11.8% year over year. Tariffs are often forcing businesses to choose between lowering product quality, raising prices, or slashing profits, and small business owners are hurt the most.
As NTU has noted before, trade keeps Valentine’s Day affordable. Trade taxes and regulations are making Valentine’s Day more expensive for the American taxpayer. Many of the tariffs are currently under review at the Supreme Court, and Congress is finally taking up the issue. It’s too late to help this year, but let’s hope next Valentine’s Day sees a resurgence in tariff-free trade in flowers, sugar, wine, and other goods desired by Americans.