As the federal government faces rising deficits, debt, and interest costs, Congress should ensure that budget projections reflect fiscal reality as clearly and accurately as possible.
The No Bias in the Baseline Act (H.R. 8979/S. 4372), recently introduced by Representative Ben Cline (R-VA) and Senator Roger Marshall (R-KS), would help improve transparency and accountability in the congressional budget process by addressing a longstanding flaw in how the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) constructs its baseline projections.
Under current statutory rules governing how CBO constructs its budget baseline—the benchmark used to score legislation—spending designated as an emergency is generally exempt from budget enforcement rules and does not have to be offset. That spending can then be carried forward into future projections as though it will continue indefinitely and grow with inflation, effectively locking temporary spending into the baseline.
Then, after the enacted spending expires as intended, lawmakers can use the inflated baseline to claim “phantom offsets” for higher spending in new legislation.
This flaw in the baseline rules has become increasingly important as Congress has approved trillions of dollars in emergency spending this decade for disasters, economic disruptions, public health emergencies, and geopolitical crises. While emergency funding may be warranted in extraordinary circumstances, temporary spending should not quietly become assumed permanent spending growth within the baseline.
The timing of this legislation is particularly important given CBO’s latest fiscal outlook, which projects deficits rising above $3 trillion annually within the next decade, debt held by the public reaching 120% of GDP, and annual net interest costs exceeding $2 trillion.
Against that backdrop, Congress should not rely on budget conventions that obscure the true trajectory of federal spending.
The No Bias in the Baseline Act would help correct this flaw by amending the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985 to prevent temporary emergency spending from automatically inflating future baseline projections. The bill would not limit Congress’s ability to respond to emergencies or provide disaster relief when needed, but would help ensure that temporary spending is treated as temporary within the budget process.
Rep. Cline also introduced a second version of the No Bias in the Baseline Act as H.R. 8569 which is identical to the companion bills above but with an additional provision requiring CBO’s annual baseline projection to include alternative fiscal scenarios.
In most years, CBO publishes such scenarios in its budget outlook reports or companion analyses using alternative budget assumptions that can present a more realistic picture of the nation’s fiscal trajectory than the standard current-law baseline. While the current-law baseline is constructed using statutory assumptions and existing scorekeeping conventions, alternative fiscal scenarios can provide a more realistic current-policy view of the federal government’s fiscal trajectory.
For example, CBO may show the budgetary impact of temporary emergency spending expiring as intended or recurring short-term tax policies being permanently extended. These alternative fiscal scenarios help reveal some of the gaps and biases that can arise under the current-law baseline and provide lawmakers with a fuller picture of the long-term fiscal outlook.
As lawmakers debate how to address the nation’s worsening fiscal outlook, accurate baseline projections are crucial. Congress cannot credibly confront rising deficits and debt while relying on flawed budget conventions that can overstate savings and understate the long-term growth of federal spending.
The No Bias in the Baseline Act from Representative Ben Cline and Senator Roger Marshall would help bring much-needed transparency, accountability, and honesty to the federal budget process.