The gross national debt of the United States has surpassed $40 trillion, a figure so large that it is difficult to grasp. In practical terms, it is equivalent to roughly $120,000 per person in the United States, and about 130% of current U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).
The gross debt is comprised of $32 trillion in debt held by the public, including Treasury securities owned by individuals, financial institutions, the Federal Reserve, and state, local, and foreign governments. The remaining $8 trillion is intragovernmental debt that the government essentially owes itself because surpluses in federal trust funds have been used to finance spending elsewhere in the budget.
It took nearly two centuries, from the founding of the federal government until 1982, for the gross debt to reach $1 trillion. It took another 27 years to reach $10 trillion in 2009. Since then, the pace has accelerated dramatically: eight years to add the next $10 trillion, five years to add another $10 trillion, and only four years to climb from $30 trillion to $40 trillion.
Table 1. Gross National Debt Milestones, 1982–2026 | |
Year | Gross National Debt Threshold |
1982 | $1 trillion |
2009 | $10 trillion |
2017 | $20 trillion |
2022 | $30 trillion |
2026 | $40 trillion |
Federal receipts have remained relatively stable as a share of the economy since World War II despite wide variations in tax rates and policies. Since the 1950s, average receipts have generally ranged between 16% and 18% of GDP, even as federal individual income tax top rates have gone up and down within a range of 28% to 91% and corporate tax rates fell from 52% to 21%. Outlays, by contrast, have exceeded receipts in every decade and have generally climbed as a share of GDP. Outlays in recent decades exceeded 20%, rising to 25% through this partial decade.
Table 2. Average Federal Receipts and Outlays as a Share of GDP, by Decade | ||
Decade | Average Receipts (% of GDP) | Average Outlays (% of GDP) |
1930–1939 | 4.9 | 7.9 |
1940–1949 | 14.1 | 23.5 |
1950–1959 | 16.8 | 17.2 |
1960–1969 | 17.3 | 18.1 |
1970–1979 | 17.4 | 19.5 |
1980–1989 | 17.8 | 21.6 |
1990–1999 | 18.0 | 20.1 |
2000–2009 | 17.1 | 19.5 |
2010–2019 | 16.4 | 21.2 |
2020–2025 | 17.2 | 25.6 |
This imbalance has made annual deficits the norm and budget surpluses exceedingly rare. The federal government ran surpluses in 69 of the 100 years from 1800 through 1899. Since 1950, however, it has managed just nine annual surpluses. The most recent was in 2001.
Table 3. Number of Years with Deficits vs. Surpluses Since 1800 | ||
Period | Surpluses | Deficits |
1800–1849 | 33 | 17 |
1850–1899 | 36 | 14 |
1900–1949 | 23 | 27 |
1950–1999 | 7 | 43 |
2000–2026 | 2 | 25 |
Supporters of tax increases often assume that raising rates, particularly the top individual income-tax rate, will produce a large and dependable revenue windfall. History suggests otherwise.
As noted above, federal receipts as a share of GDP have remained relatively stable, and this has occurred even as tax rates have generally trended downward since the early 1980s. It is also important to remember that, over this time period, the tax code has become increasingly progressive, with higher-income earners bearing an increasingly larger share of the income tax burden.
Additionally, higher rates can also discourage work, saving, investment, business formation, and other productive activity, as a result leading to lower revenues than hoped for.
On the other hand, stronger economic growth expands the tax base and raises incomes, creating more revenue without relying on economically damaging tax hikes. But even strong revenue growth will be overwhelmed if federal spending continues to rise faster than the economy. Sustainable budgeting should pair a simpler, more predictable, and pro-growth tax code with reduced spending.
Budget Reforms Are Sorely Needed
There is no single reform that will erase decades of accumulated debt, but there are several steps Congress could take to improve the quality of the data available to lawmakers and the rules governing budget decisions.
NTUF has identified several ways to improve CBO’s effectiveness and help lawmakers make better-informed decisions, including incorporating debt-service costs into estimates, expanding dynamic analysis, showing uncertainty in projections, conducting post-enactment reviews, improving model transparency, and providing more frequent baseline updates.
Better information must be paired with enforceable fiscal controls. Congress should restore regular order, prevent emergency spending from becoming permanent, and set meaningful limits on the growth of federal outlays.
Conclusion
As President Reagan said in 1987, “We don't have deficits because people are taxed too little. We have deficits because big government spends too much.”
America did not accumulate $40 trillion in debt because Washington failed to tax citizens enough. It accumulated $40 trillion because, generation after generation, policymakers approved spending commitments that consistently outpaced the government’s revenues.
As the Congressional Budget Office has warned, high and rising debt will leave policymakers with fewer fiscal options to respond to the next recession, war, natural disaster, or public-health emergency. Higher federal borrowing can also crowd out private investment, place upward pressure on interest rates, and weaken long-term economic growth.
Pro-growth tax policy can strengthen the economy and improve revenue performance. But restoring fiscal stability ultimately requires Congress to do what it has avoided for decades: set priorities, restrain the growth of spending, and spend within its means.