To hear many politicians tell it, this month's elections proved that "pocketbook" issues have gone from sizzling to fizzling at the polls. Gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey were won by moderate-to-liberal candidates, while voters in California, Colorado, and elsewhere seemed reluctant to back tax and budget limits. What's really happening here?
Democrat Tim Kaine's win for governor in Virginia is not surprising, considering how GOP opponent Jerry Kilgore approached fiscal issues. Kilgore failed to convey a strong limited government philosophy and therefore couldn't energize much of his potential base (interestingly, that base did elect Republican Bill Bolling, who had a sharply honed anti-tax message, Lieutenant Governor). Neither was he helped by lingering resentment over a major state tax increase last year that a bloc of Republicans shepherded through the legislature. There's a lesson here for national GOP leaders, several of whom are backing a retread of the tried-and-failed windfall profits tax on oil.
Nor are New Jersey's elections a repudiation of taxpayer concerns. Although it is true that defeated Republican candidate Doug Forrester offered an aggressive property tax reduction plan, Governor-elect Jon Corzine was forced to respond with his own recommendations. Given the Garden State's dubious distinction of having the second-heaviest property tax burden in the nation, Corzine's tenure will be rocky unless he upholds his promise for tax relief that is "responsible, effective, accountable, and lasting."
Ballot measure contests likewise showed no consensus for bigger government. The demise of California's Proposition 76, which would have restricted the growth of state spending to a formula based on previous revenues, has been tied to the sagging political fortunes of its most prominent advocate, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. But another factor may have been ambivalence over the modest nature of the spending limit in a state where taxpayers are accustomed to beefier protections like Proposition 13. Furthermore, by packaging other ballot proposals such as redistricting and teacher-performance reforms alongside Proposition 76, Schwarzenegger's strategy mobilized an even bigger special interest alliance against him.
Even in states where voters did consent to higher taxes, the overall picture is not completely gloomy. In Washington public officials evoked images of Hurricane Katrina to bully voters into believing a 9.5-cent-per-gallon gas tax hike was necessary to protect the state's infrastructure from other disasters. Yet, Washingtonians displayed enduring skepticism of government's stewardship of tax dollars by decisively approving a measure to require regular audits of state and local programs.
Such was also the case in Colorado, where, by a 4-point margin, citizens opted to temporarily suspend a provision in their "Taxpayer's Bill of Rights" (TABOR) that provides refunds of revenues above established constitutional limits. Yet, Coloradoans turned down a companion measure that asked for more bonding authority based on that new revenue stream.
Perhaps the most underreported election outcome was in New York, where voters trounced (by over 25 points) a constitutional amendment that would have given the state legislature massive new powers to ram bloated budgets past the governor. New Yorkers saw through this transparent plot to reward special interests and worsen the state's multi-billion-dollar deficits, despite being hit with a barrage of propaganda from unions and their allies.
Furthermore, if indeed the old adage about all politics being local is true, then voters' reactions to fiscal proposals in cities and counties across the nation cannot be ignored. In countless places such as Pittsylvania, Virginia; San Antonio, Texas; and Seattle, Washington, schemes for everything from meals taxes to publicly-funded monorails were shot down.
As in past elections, the political establishment is clueless over the meaning of this November's contests, and equally important, the battles to come. Citizen activists are already gathering petition signatures for the 2006 ballot on behalf of tough, sensible limits on the growth of government in Maine, Nevada, Ohio, and Oklahoma, to name a few.
Those who are still inclined to count the tax revolt out of the political arena should remember that even landmark measures like California's Proposition 13 and Colorado's TABOR failed at the polls several times before they were ultimately adopted. After all, elected officials can only talk a good game about fiscal responsibility for so long, before taxpayers themselves demand a voice over how much government they can afford.